UFC PERTH: BETS & BREAKDOWN
I ran out of time on the breakdowns this week. I’m gonna work on Final Bets now, but here’s what I had:
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JACK DELLA MADDALENA VS CARLOS PRATES
I’ve started to notice that a lot of people are on Carlos Prates and it’s making me nervous. But I felt the same with Aljamain Sterling last week and Renato Moicano a few weeks ago. They weren’t popular picks and I heard other people’s takes. But I have to stick with the way I analyze these fights. We all have our own style and methods.
I like Jack Della Maddalena quite a bit here. It wasn’t that long ago that people bet him against Islam Makachev. I wasn’t one of them, but it’s an example of how he was thought of. Albeit, some of it is rooted in people hating wrestling and grappling and wanting Islam to lose. Islam Makachev would smoke Carlos Prates right now and he would beat JDM in a rematch.
Anyway, Carlos Prates is a much different matchup. He isn’t going to do much if any grappling, he isn’t going to push a great pace. And the only time we saw Prates go 5 rounds, he was dominated by Ian Garry. Other than that, he’s never even been to a 3rd round.
JDM has fought to 5 decisions in the UFC. Winning 4 of them. He lands strikes at a much higher clip than Prates. 5.57 strikes per minute to 3.37. Almost 2 strikes per minute more. That’s an average of outstriking Prates by almost 50 strikes in a 5 round fight. Or maybe more importantly, almost 10 strikes per round.
The stats actually give Prates the edge in wrestling and grappling. But I think watching them both fight, JDM is pretty clearly better. And I don’t expect either guy to use it much.
JDM is 2-1 by submission. Prates is 3-3. They both haven’t been submitted since early in their careers. For JDM it was just his 2nd fight. JDM in fact hadn’t lost since his second fight until losing to Makachev. He has the more recent submission win. Submitting Randy Brown in 2023. Prates hasn’t won by submission since 2016. Long before he was in the UFC.
And I just trust JDM’s cardio more and his want to push more. Prates can go off, but if he does I think he’s more likely to get tired. He didn’t look good vs Ian Garry and again, JDM is 4-1 by decision. Prates is 2-2.
So Prates feels KO or bust and JDM hasn’t been KOed since his very first fight. The main bet is Maddalena money line, which I got at -105 and you can now get at +100. I’ll double down if he gets to +120. Then I also like Maddalena ITD at +250, but I could see it going to decision too. And if it does, I think it’s a JDM win.
PREDICTION: MADDALENA BY KO, ROUND 4
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
BET: MADDALENA ML -105, MADDALENA ITD +205
TAI TUIVASA VS LOUIE SUTHERLAND
I went into this expecting to bet Sutherland. I even told people I was. But when I learned that the UFC originally tried to book Sean Sharaf as Tuivasa’s opponent, I changed my mind. Sharaf was the last person Junior Tafa beat and one of his two UFC wins. He was knocked out by Tafa, He was also knocked out by Steven Asplund. Now they booked Louie Sutherland on short notice and he has to travel all of the way to Perth. The UFC is trying their hardest to get Tuivasa a win, on a 6 fight losing streak.
Sutherland has a 10-5 pro record. In 2 fights with the UFC, he has a 22% defense rate. That’s one of the worst I can remember seeing. 8 of his 10 wins are by KO. He’s 2-3 by decision.
Sutherland can wrestle a bit. He’s not horrible, by the standards of heavyweight MMA. He’s pretty ordinary. He relies on power, doesn’t have good cardio.
My concern is that he will take Tai down and then in the last fight, we saw Tuivasa just gives up at a certain point in each round, if he’s controlled. I’m pretty sure he could have beaten Tallison Teixera if he could just have pushed a little more. But he’s too out of shape.
That’s the risk here. Otherwise, Tuivasa knocks Sutherland out. And with a 22% defense rate, I think Tai will have enough chances.
PREDICTION: MADDALENA BY KO, ROUND 4
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-LOW
BET: TUIVASA BY KO -125, TUIVASA ROUND 2 +525