UFC 328: BETS & BREAKDOWN
Things haven’t gone as well as I expect this year. I’m going to try to take small changes to turn that around. I won’t be betting anyone that I’m not reasonably confident they will win. Last week, I was very confident in Jack Della Maddalena and he lost badly. That’s ok. That happens. I was just wrong. But I also bet Tai Tuivasa, Beneil Dariush and Tim Elliott and I acknowledged I could see all of them losing. I’m not going to make bets like that anymore.
Pat Sabatini vs William Gomis
There are a few things going for Sabatini in this fight. He is coming off of a fight where he dominated a very good grappler in Chepe Mariscal. Landing 7 takedowns. And really before that, beat Joanderson Brito and Jonathan Pearce by out-grappling them. His opponent this week, William Gomis, isn’t a grappler. He gets taken down a lot and by people who are lesser grapplers than Sabatini, who holds a college wrestling background and a black belt in jiu jitsu. Gomis was taken down 8 times in his last 5 fights. He’s winning these fights, but I think Sabatini is better than Gomis’s past opponents and a better finisher.
Where Pat runs into trouble is on the feet. He has never lost 3 of his 5 losses are by KO and he hasn’t lost another way since 2018. His chin could be called bad. But in a way I think that works for the Sabatini side, because he won’t won’t to stay on the feet. Gomis needs the fight on the feet to win, I think Pat should be able to take it down. And then I don’t think Gomis can hang with him. 12 submission wins in Pat Sabitini’s career. I’m looking for number 13. The money line is a little rich at -230, so I’m just going to bet the submission.
PREDICTION: SABATINI BY SUBMISSION, ROUND 2
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
BET: SABATINI BY SUBMISSION +240
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Jared Gordon vs Jim Miller
Famous last words, but this seems too easy. Jared Gordon is probably better than Jim Miller anywhere. I like his boxing better. He’s definitely the more aggressive striker. Miller is only landing 2.92 strikes per minute vs Gordon’s 5.64.
Miller comes from a wrestling background but it’s Gordon who tends to feature it more. They’re both black belts. Miller has 21 career wins by submission. Which is really huge. But Gordon has only lost once by submission to Grant Dawson. Kind of a surprising stat, but I still think Gordon is a strong grappler.
Gordon is 11-2 by decision. Miller is 10-14. He often isn’t producing enough offense and kind od stands out as submission or bust in this matchup.
Gordon by decision stands out as a great play at +100.
PREDICTION: GORDON BY DECISION
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
BET: GORDON BY DECISION +100
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Alexander Volkov Vs Waldo Cortes Acosta
I always considered Waldo Cortes Acosta to be a low to mid tier heavyweight and Alexander Volkov a championship contender. If you look at Volkov’s losses; Ciryl Gane, twice. A former champion and the second fight, Volkov arguably won. Tom Aspinall, champion. Curtis Blaydes, a contender who had to take him down 14 times. And Derrick Lewis, who famously knocked out Volkov in the last seconds of a fight Volkov was dominating.
Acosta lost decisively to Sergei Pavlovich and Marcos Rogerio de Lima. Both never serious contenders and de Lima not at all.
de Lima was able to take Acosta down 3 times and control him. That’s something we just saw Volkov do to Ciryl Gane, a much better grappler than Acosta. I think that could be an option for Volkov.
On the feet, Volkov is taller and longer. Acosta struggled with range vs Pavlovich. Volkov should be harder. Acosta lands more strikes per minute; 5.54 to 4.78. But I think Volkov’s numbers look comparable, especially when you consider Volkov has done his over longer fights and better competition.
Acosta is 17-2 overall and 7-2 by decision. Both of his losses are by decision. Volkov is 11-6 by decision and he’s been finished a lot more than Acosta. But I think he rates out as the better round winner. I’m also not buying Acosta as a finisher, at a higher level yet.
PREDICTION: VOLKOV BY DECISION
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
BET: VOLKOV ML -165, VOLKOV BY DECISION +150
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Tatsuro Taira vs Joshua Van
One of my favorite grapplers and fighters overall, vs one of my favorite strikers. Josh Van lands a staggering 8.84 strikes per minute. He’s landed over 100 strikes over 3 rounds in every decision he’s gone to in the UFC except for when he faced Rei Tsuruya and was taken down 4 times. Limiting him to just 59 significant strikes. That will be the playbook for Tatsuro Taira, who lands just 2.94 strikes per minute.
Taira is a grappler, landing over 3 takedowns per fight. His most being 6 vs Brandon Royval. I just re watched that fight, it’s really good.
He’s so fast with his shots. When he sees an opening, he’s in. And he has unique and diverse takedowns.
What I love about Taira is his dexterity, body control and balance. He’s such a technician and he has beautiful grappling, with the athleticism to flow through positions.
It really shines when the fight gets to the mat. He doesn’t lose control much. He controlled Royval like the entire 2nd round on one takedown.
Taira kind of gassed in that fight in the 5th round. But Joshua Van is nowhere near the grappler that Brandon Royval is. He want cause Taira to scramble as much.
Joshua Van’s a much better striker and his volume is really impressive and fun. He will have to stop a ton of takedowns from Taira to win this fight though and I just don’t think he has the grappling or wrestling to escape them all. And I think he’s in deep water when he gets taken down.
PREDICTION: TAIRA BY SUBMISSION, ROUND 2
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-HIGH
BET: TAIRA ML -170, TAIRA BY SUBMISSION +220
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KHAMZAT CHIMAEV VS SEAN STRICKLAND
I think the problem in this fight for Sean Strickland will be the mix of grappling and aggression from Khamzat Chimaev. When looking through Strickland’s resume, he hasn’t done as well vs fighters that will be more aggressive than him. Dricus Du Plessis, Alex Perreira and Paulo Costa, he beat, but Costa landed 158 strikes and doesn’t wrestle. Strickland succeeds by marching forward with that shell defense and throwing more volume. That’s why I bet him vs Israel Adesanya, before Izzy fell off even.
He also hasn’t fought many people who will wrestle him or threaten him on the mat like Chimaev. he lost to Kamaru Usman, but that was almost 10 years ago. He stopped Anthony Hernandez from wrestling and beat him up. But Chimaev is way more physical and way more fast than Hernandez.
Kind of like the Taira vs Van fight, I think Strickland would have to stop so many takedowns to win this fight. And like Taira/Van, I don’t think he can.
I think it could be really fast. Chimaev immediately takes him down and strangles him or badly damages Strickland on the mat. Or it could extend and be a lot like the Du Plessis fight. Multiple takedowns and control. I expect Chimaev to be dominant though.
PREDICTION: CHIMAEV BY SUBMISSION, ROUND 1
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-HIGH
BET: ???