Let’s try to get the breakdowns cooking again. The UFC took a huge hit with Conor McGregor dropping out of this event. It had been heavily promoted and was a big letdown. They also suffered several other withdrawals from this card. One being Jamahal Hill. That being said, I think 303 is stilla good card and much better than the next two fight nights. Lets break it down.
_______________
RICKY SIMON VS VINICIUS OLIVEIRA
Kicking off the card, one of my personal favorite fighters, Ricky Simon. He is coming off of back to back losses where he couldn’t wrestle effectively. He went 2 for 9 vs Song Yadong and 2 for 13 vs Mario Bautista. While tis weeks opponent, Oliveira is dangerous, he is definitely a discount in defensive grappling.
We know where Ricky’s bread is buttered. He wants to pick his opponents up and slam them. He’s landed as many as 14 takedowns in the UFC and can be predicted to get 6 or 7 in a full fight.
I like Simon because you don’t have to worry about whether he will neglect his A game. He’s going to shoot takedowns and against most people, he will get several. I also think it’s exciting when he picks someone up and gives them a tour of the octagon before slamming them.
He’s not a poor striker either. He can throw with power and has 6 KOs. But he can also be hurt on the feet and in this matchup, I wouldn’t want him trading with Oliveira for long.
Vinicius Oliveira has 2 fights and 2 knock outs under the UFC banner. He has 16 knock outs in 23 fights! That is impressive and certainly makes him potentially dangerous, but it is arguable that Ricky Simon is a much higher class of opponent than he is used to. As I said, Ricky can get hurt though. So, Oliveira is live, especially as long as the fight is standing.
Oliveira has shown vulnerabilities to wrestling. Late notice opponent Bernardo Sopaj took him down 3 times and was possibly winning at a point in the fight, before fading and getting finished.
That is essentially what I expect in this one. Simon will be ahead, if he can get takedowns. And I don’t think he will fade as badly as Sopaj. But Oliveira will be dangerous and capable of changing the fight instantly, when they are striking.
Simon is now up to -250 and is getting close to being too heavily favored. I am not say, -300 sure that Oliveira doesn’t hurt him on the feet. But I parlayed him at -218 with Gillian Robertson, who we will discuss later on the card, to get a +131 line. I like Simon here, but it is getting close to being over confident on the odds.
PREDICTION: SIMON BY DECISION
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
BET: PARLAY WITH GILLIAN ROBERTSON +131
________________
REI TSURUYA VS CARLOS HERNANDEZ
Speaking of probably being over valued; late notice replacement, 22 year old Road to UFC winner, Tsuruya is currently -485 against 4 fight UFC veteran, Carlos Hernandez. There have been some great prospects come from the road to UFC, like Rinya Nakamura and then there are fighters like Jeka Saragih last week that lost to Westin Wilson.
I don’t know Rei really well yet, but I like what I see. His takedown entries are really fast and it looks like he has great balance and body control. He is also very physically strong. Very muscular, really in shape.
I’m not sure how well he finishes his takedowns yet though.
I’m also not really sure about his striking. He’s shown to be low volume in his striking so far. So, it makes me wonder how he might fair if he can’t finish his takedowns.
I would favor Carlos Hernandez on the feet. We’ve seen him go 3-2 at the UFC level and he has put up over 100 strikes before. He’s an ok boxer.
Hernandez is also a pretty good wrestler. At least offensively. But he has been taken down 10 times in 5 UFC fights.
An interesting stat though, Hernandez has won all 3 of his decisions in the UFC. Even one where he was taken down 5 times. Both of his UFC losses are by finish.
Tsuruya has won 2 of his 3 UFC fights by finish. He has one by KO and one by kimura. I personally like to see wrestle-heavy fighters that have kimura wins. It’s a submission that you can get from being in top control. You see people like Islam Makachev hit it.
So, I don’t think Tsuruya should be -470 at this point. Carlos Hernandez could give him trouble. I may not even have Tsuruya in the ladder. I have to decide. I still think he SHOULD win, but the line is a little crazy.
PREDICTION: TSURUYA BY KIMURA, ROUND 2
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-LOW
BET: NONE
_______________
MARTIN BUDAY VS ANDREI ARLOVSKI
What Andrei Arlovski has done and is doing is incredible. 57 pro fights. He started fighting in the UFC in the year 2000. He has comeback from two really rough 4 and 5 fight losing streaks. But he’s on a 3 fight losing streak now and I think it’s time. He’s 45. Born in the year 1979. We can’t be high level athletes forever. He’s a sure Hall of Famer. I just think it’s time to retire from fighting.
It’s not that I don’t think he can beat Martin Buday. I think he possibly could. But he just lost to Marcos Rogerio De Lima, Don’tayle Mayes and Waldo Cortes Acosta. No disrespect to those warriors either, but there isn’t much room to fight below them.
And Arlovski has been knocked out 12 times. He has 17 knock outs in his favor, but hasn’t gotten one since 2015 of Travis Browne. There are 100% people reading this that don’t know who Travis Browne is.
Buday isn’t really a knock out guy either. Only 7 to his credit. Low for heavyweight. But he is 8 years younger, 20+ pounds heavier, faster and has seemed pretty durable.
Buday has been inconsistent with the pace he fights at. Sometimes he seems high volume, other times he does not. Kind of similar to Arlovski, really.
Neither fighter offers a ton of grappling upside. Buday has 2 wins by kimura in his career but only has landed 1 takedown in the UFC. Arlovski has shown almost know want to grapple in his very long career. He does have historically strong grappling defense though.
I think Buday is the side in this fight. At -265, I think he’s a good parlay piece. I’m not too interested, personally, in props. I lean Buday by decision, but with Arlovski’s age, who knows. I would just parlay the money line.
PREDICTION: BUDAY BY DECISION
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-HIGH
BET: NONE
_______________
MICHELLE WATERSON VS GILLIAN ROBERTSON
One of my other favorite fighters in the UFC, Gillian Robertson. Like Simon, I think you can trust her to attempt takedowns. The problem is that she can occasionally struggle to land them. Like vs JJ Aldrich and Tabith Ricci. The latter I thought was predictable. The former I did not expect.
Michelle Waterson has lost 4 in a row coming into this and actually 6 of her last 7. She is 38 years old now and her pro record is 18-12.
Robertson just turned 29 and is 13-8 as a pro. She has 9 submissions and has the record for most submissions by a female in the UFC.
Waterson also has 9 submissions, but most have come outside of the UFC. She’s also lost by submission 4 times.
On the feet, the edge definitely goes to Waterson. She’s the, “Karate Hottie”. She can land in volume and cabn attack with a diverse striking portfolio.
Robertson is not a very good striker and never looks like she wants to strike for long.
What I like about Robertson’s game is she fights like someone who loves jiu jitsu. SHe looks to get the fight to the mat. She has a decent single leg and she does the fundamentals well. She is especially dangerous with her back takes and arm bar set ups.
Michelle Waterson does have good takedown defense and she is not a bad grappler herself. I often like her chances whenI think she has the grappling advantage. This is one where I think Robertson should have the advantage, even if Waterson defends decently.
So, there could be anxious moments here, but I think this is a fight Robertson SHOULD win. She does need takedowns though. She is currently -185, which I will take. I unfortunately missed -170. And as I said before I parlayed her with Ricky Simon. I am also interested in her submission prop, but don’t want to be overly invested in her and Waterson may be able to limit submission attempts.
PREDICTION: ROBERTSON BY RNC, ROUND 2
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
BET: ROBERTSON ML -185
________________
PAYTON TALBOTT VS YANIS GHEMMOURI
Payton Talbott is currently -1600. Ghemmouri is +900. Meaning a $10 bet would win $100.
Ghemmouri is 29 and 12-2 as a pro. Those are probably his biggest advantages. That and maybe Talbott is overlooking him.
Talbott is 25 and just 8-0 as a pro.
The most important viewing for Payton Talbott research is his fight vs. Cristhian Rivas. Talbott won, but it went into the third round and there were many bad looks for Talbott. Rivas quickly took him down and took his back. First, his sprawling technique was almost comical. Rivas just turned the corner and got his back. Talbott worked up after 2 minutes of taking some ground and pound. He had some success on the feet but Rivas took him down easily again. Round 2 was going pretty similarly untril Talbott dropped Rivas at the very end of round 2 and finished him in the 3rd.
On the feet, he is dangerous. He has length and power. At 5’10 and 135 pounds, it’s hard not to think of Sean O’Malley. But he doesn’t defend strikes. He has no problem taking shots to give one. He just walks through them. He has the confidence that he can hurt you more and that his chin can hold up. And it has.
Ghemmouri has 3 knock out wins. He is a kickboxer and can be aggressive. He had his UFC debut up at Featherweight vs William Gomis. He didn’t look good. He struggled to connect on strikes and was 0 for 4 on takedowns. He was knocked out in the 3rd round.
Now he is fighting at his normal weight of 135, but I don’t like the matchup for him. I think he has maybe a better than +900 chance of winning, but I would rather back a strong wrestler who will aggressively pursue takedowns vs Talbott. Off the top of my head at Bantamweight… Brady Hiestand? He’s coming off of a big win.
But this is Yanis Ghemmouri and I think more likely than not, Talbott finishes him in round 2.
PREDICTION: TALBOTT BY KO, ROUND 2
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-HIGH
BET: NONE
________________
CHARLES JOURDAIN VS JEAN SILVA
One of the hardest fights for a confident pick on the card and the line reflects it. We don’t know Jean Silva well yet. He’s 27 years old and just 12-2 in MMA. In the UFC, he’s beaten Westin Wilson and Kevin Vallejos. Not opponents that tell you much. He’s the only person to have beaten Kevin Vallejos, who is just 22.
We know Charles Jourdain quite well and he can be an exciting fighter, but he is unfortunately extremely limited. He can strike in pretty good volume, multiple fights over 100 strikes. But in his last fight vs Sean Woodson, he only landed 60 significant strikes and lost.
The real problem with Jourdain is that he can’t wrestle. He gets taken down often and he usually stays down for a bit.
Silva seems to be a striker, despite fighting out of Fighting Nerds, but he has landed a takedown in each of his UFC fights.
Jourdain has a significant experience advantage. Not just in more fights but that he’s been with the UFC since 2019. But he’s 6-6 and 1 in the UFC and has that glaring whole in his wrestling.
So, I will say, I’d like Jourdain to win. I predict Silva to win. At -105 and currently the slight underdog, I’d like to bet Silva, but I feel like I don’t know him well enough yet. Lets see him in this step up vs Jourdain.
PREDICTION: SILVA BY DECISION
CONFIDENCE: LOW
BET: NONE
________________
CUB SWANSON VS ANDRE FILI
My guy, Touchy Fili is back again. I think this is good matchmaking and could be a close fight. It should be fun to watch though.
Cub is 40 and has been almost retiring for a few years. I was at the fight in Tampa in 2019 when he cried after beating Kron Gracie because he had lost 4 in a row. Then he cried again after beating Hakeem Dawadou when it seemed like even he thought he lost. His family was there. It feels like it’s almost time, 42 fights in. Nowhere near a title contention.
This is no disrespect to Cub. He’s an excellent fighter. His fight with Doo Ho Choi is one of my all time favorites. But similar to Arlovski, it feels like his time has passed.
But, as I said, this is good matchmaking. Cub is a good boxer. He can still crack and he can still get after it and land at a decent rate.
He is also well rounded and has wrestling and jiu jitsu, though I wouldn’t label him a grappler. He hasn’t landed more than 2 takedowns in a UFC fight and he hasn’t hit that mark since 2017. He’s also lost to the submission almost twice as much as he’s won. 7 to 4. But he can mix it up.
Andre Fili is also not necessarily a grappler but I do think it’s a bigger part of his game than Cub’s. Fili has hit the 5 takedown mark 3 times in the UFC, with the most recent being in 2020 and he is winning the submission battle 3 to 2.
I like Fili’s wrestling and his jiu jitsu more than Cub’s but neither guy gets taken down often.
On the feet, the numbers side with Cub slightly. He lands almost 5 strikes per minute, while Fili is a little under 4. Cub has 13 career knock outs vs 3 losses by knock out. Fili has 10 wins by knockout vs 4 losses by knock out.
Fili is coming off of a bad knock out to Dan Ige just 4 months ago. His 2nd KO loss in 2 years. The other to Joanderson Brito. He was also dropped by Nathanial Wood.
Cub’s last two losses have been by KO too though. Jonathan Martinez and Giga Chikadze.
Martinez I feel is somewhat comparable to Fili. Both taller, lankier fighters. Both about the same age and while not as good as Martinez’s, Fili uses kicks well.
This is a close fight, but I’m going to pick Fili based on being taller, younger and a better grappler. Also, just being a bigger fan.
It’s currently lined Fili -245 and Cub +200. That’s a pretty good line on Cub. I’m actually surprised not to see more action on it because people love to underrate Fili. So, if you want to bet Cub, it’s not a bad bet. Right now, I have no play.
PREDICTION: FILI BY DECISION
CONFIDENCE: LOW
BET: NONE
______________
JOE PYFER VS MARC-ANDRE BARRIAULT
This actually isn’t my favorite fight. I’m not a huge Joe Pyfer believer. I think he’s a powerful guy and I think he’s physical. But we saw Jack Hermansson beat him in a fight that he started the fight dominating. I bet Hermansson in that fight, but it made me feel that Pyfer was even more limited than I had thought. And his cardio has come into question.
Now, he’s fighting a guy that is known to push the pace in MAB. Now, I do think MAB is a bit limited as well, he also gets hit a lot. He feels like a proven decision winner, but Barriault is actually 5 and 5 by decision. He has 10 KOs. While it’s possible that MAB can knock Pyfer out, but Pyfer seems difficult to finish. MAB does have the volume advantage on paper though. He has shown ability to land over 100 strikes on a few occasions in just 3 rounds. Pyfer just gassed after landing 90 over 5.
MAB is also pretty durable. Only finished twice in his career, only one by knock out.
On the grappling side, Pyfer should have the advantage. He is more likey to attempt takedowns and MAB has been taken down by the likes of Eryk Anders and Jordan Wright. Barriault only has one submission loss but Pyfer has 3 submission wins. I think it is a possible method of victory. But the grappling all together, I’m not sure we can depend on Pyfer to do it.
Pyfer by submission is +550 and I prefer that to the -290 money line, on the Pyfer side. I would rather take MAB at +235, but right now, I might just sit this one out.
PREDICTION: PYFER BY ARM TRIANGLE, ROUND 2
CONFIDENCE: LOW
BET: NONE
___________________
IAN MACHADO GARRY VS MICHAEL VENOM PAGE
Boy did I go hard against MVP in his debut vs Kevin Holland and I was super wrong. I am still not an MVP believer though and he has another good test with Garry.
Garry is a much higher paced striker than MVP. He’s capable of 90-100 strikes landed in a full fight and does a good job defensively. He absorbed 90 strikes vs Gabe Green but he’s only absorbed about 135 significant strikes in 4 fights since.
MVP is well known for his evasiveness and creative striking though. He made Kevin Holland look bad and only allowed him 29 significant strikes for a full fight. Page also only landed 41 himself though.
It was a good win, but I think it was a surprising win and probably at, 37 years old, his best win of his career. He’s 22-2, but as I said last time, most of his career was fighting in Bellator and a lot at a time when Bellator had a pretty poor roster.
On the grappling side, this is where Machado can dominate, if he chooses too. He’s not someone that we can depend on to definitely choose to grapple. But he did take Neil Magny down twice and Kevin Holland took Page down twice. Ian Garry has the better wrestling and the better jiu jitsu. It’s up to him if he chooses the path of least resistance. I would like to see it, but I’m not sure.
So, at -155 I think Garry is worth a shot. I think it will be a much tougher fight, if he chooses to strike for most of the fight. But he also has the striking volume upside. Plus, Page is 37 and Garry is 26. It’s no guarantee, but Garry is one of the picks I like on the card.
PREDICTION: GARRY BY REAR NAKED CHOKE, ROUND 3
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-HIGH
BET: GARRY ML -155
_________________
MAYRA BUENO SILVA VS MACY CHIASSON
This is a tough fight. I never shit on women’s MMA as a whole on this page, so I want to specify that I don’t think both fighters are flakey because it’s women’s MMA. Unfortunately, you will see a lot of people say that.
But these are two fighters that I think are hard to trust.
MBS, I am not a big fan of. I had a huge win picking Raquel Pennington to beat her earlier this year.
The problem with MBS is that she doesn’t strike for good volume. She doesn’t defend strikes well. She has strong jiu jitsu but below average ability to land takedowns. She also attempts takedowns at a lower rate than she should. This is why she is 6-3 with 1 draw and 1 NC in the UFC, with her jiu jitsu skill level. Lastly, her cardio is a concern.
Macy Chiasson on the other side, is also 6-3 in the UFC. She will have a 4 inch height advantage and a 6 inch reach advantage.
On the feet, the volume rate is about even. I think Macy is decent, long striker. I think MBS has the power advantage.
Chiasson has done best when she takes her opponents down multiple times though. I think she can take MBS down, but I think there’s a chance MBS can sweep her and wind up in a better position. Basically all of Bueno Silva’s opponents have taken her down, because she probably doesn’t really care. She does have some sweeps and reversals, but she also gets reversed too.
It’s really tricky to me. I think Macy can win by top control. We saw Montana De La Rosa do it to MBS. But if she is able to get in a dominant position on Chiasson, I think she can finish the fight.
So, I’m going to pick Bueno Silva. I like Chiasson more in a decision, which basically means I would pick her. I trust her to push the pace a bit more. Bueno Silva is more dangerous though and more durable. So, if the fight ends early, it’s probably an MBS win. She has power on the feet, solid jiu jitsu and finishing ability. Plus she is just coming off of a championship fight.
So, no bet for me here. It’s currently -110 to -110, so the market agrees with me. I could really go either way. I’m going to pick Bueno Silva, just to have an official pick. If MBS drops to plus money, I will probably take it.
PREDICTION: BUENO SILVA BY GUILLOTINE, ROUND 2
CONFIDENCE: LOW
BET: NONE
________________
ANTHONY SMITH VS ROMAN DOLIDZE
To cut to the chase, Roman Dolidze is low offense and a dangerous finisher, but it’s hard to pick Anthony Smith in 2024. If he didn’t beat Vitor Petrino, he might have retired. Did he get a win as a big underdog vs someone, in Petrino, that a lot of people were high on? Yes, he did. But getting a guillotine off of a takedown on an unproven prospect, doesn’t tell me that Smith is back. Neither does beating Ryan Spann.
But Roman Dolidze just is a very low output fighter. This caused him to drop his last 2 fights to Marvin Vettori and Nassourdine Imavov. Those guys are both high output. Anthony Smith is not. But because Dolidze won’t be throwing much at Smith, it’s possible Smith wins a decision.
I think Dolidze is more dangerous and has less miles on him. He’s never been finished. Smith has been finished 15 times. Dolidze seems younger… but he’s actually 11 days older! They both turn 36 next month.
On the mat, it’s similar. They’re both not super likely to shoot a lot of takedowns but they’re both good in jiu jitsu. Anthony Smith has 15 submissions to Dolidze’s 3. But Smith has been submitted 4 times to Dolidze’s 0. A lot of this can be attributed to Smith having 57 pro fights and Dolidze having 15.
But again, I prefer Dolidze on the mat for just seeming like the fresher fighter and more athletic and dangerous fighter.
At -148, Dolidze is in betting range and this feels like maybe a buy low spot after 2 losses and Smith coming off of a win. If this fight was a year ago, I think it would be wider. So give me Dolidze.
PREDICTION: DOLIDZE BY KO, ROUND 2
CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM
BET: DOLIDZE ML -148
_______________
BRIAN ORTEGA VS DIEGO LOPES
A very interesting fight. If you normally read my breakdowns, you know that I am not as bullish on Lopes as a lot of fans right now. Is his jiu jitsu dynamic? Yes. Is he a dangerous striker? Yes. But what he is not is a good volume striker and he has only attempted 1 takedown in 4 UFC fights and landed none.
With no takedowns, landing an average of 3.22 strikes per minute won’t always get it done. And it didn’t in his first 2 UFC fights. He’s 0-2 in fights that go the distance in the UFC and he’s 2 -4 in decisions in his career. That is because he doesn’t have the game to win rounds very often. He can win a good percentage of fights by finish, with his skillset and he has. He has 22 wins inside the distance, 10 wins and 22 KOs. And that’s why he’s so popular. That’s fine if you enjoy that, but it’s also the truth that most fans overrate finishes.
Brian Ortega is also a highly skilled jiu jitsu fighter. He has 11 wins inside the distance, but he’s also 5-1 to the decision. Why? Because he can win rounds by outstriking or out wrestling his opponents.
Both are also very durable. Ortega has never been submitted and never truly been KOed. In his 2 KOs on his record, one was when he injured his shoulder and the other was the doctor stepping in after Max Holloway had beaten him up for 4 rounds.
Lopes has also never been submitted but he does have 2 more legitimate KO losses on his record. And aaginst competition lower than most of what Ortega has faced.
So, is Diego Lopes going to be the first guy to submit Ortega? Or legitimately knock him out? Or Does Lopes win if the fight goes to decision? I’m not so sure about any of that. So I will take the plus money.
Ortega is currently +120 and I took a stab. Not a confident play. I wouldn’t bet Ortega as a favorite here, I don’t think. But it feels a bit like Alexander Volkov last week or Dustin Poirier vs Benoit Saint Denis earlier this year. I tend to do well on these.
PREDICTION: ORTEGA BY DECISION
CONFIDENCE: LOW
BET: ORTEGA ML +120
____________________
ALEX PEREIRA VS JIRI PROCHAZKA
A rematch from just this past November. Jiri didn’t look bad through nearly 2 rounds. He landed a takedown in round 1. But he ultimately took too many leg kicks, was compromised and was finished.
Besides the damage, the stats for the fight were pretty close. Overall, the stats favor Pereira. In striking at least. He lands more accurately and limits strikes in return better. He also has a well documented, extensive kickboxing background.
Jiri is a dangerous but wild striker. You can’t really question his finishing ability as he has 26 wins by KO and hasn’t gone to decision since 2016.
He’s also durable. In November, Pereira became the first person toknock out or beat Jiri since 2015. But we have seen Pereira knock out people who don’t usually get knocked out, several times. Jamahal Hill, Sean Strickland and Israel Adesanya.
Jiri has much more experience grappling and a lot more MMA experience. 34 fights to 12 fights. We saw Jiri land a takedown in the first fight and I expect that he can do it again.
It’s honestly a tough pick for me. The grappling could really make a difference if Jiri really uses it. But I don’t expect him to enough. Since we saw Pereira hurt him and finish him already. And we have seen Pereira do it to so many tough fighters, I will lean towards him.
With Pereira at -148 and Jiri at +124, this fight is in perfect betting range. But as of writing, I don’t have the confidence to bet it yet.
PREDICTION: PEREIRA BY KO, ROUND 3
CONFIDENCE: LOW
BET: NONE
_________________
WINNERS ( ** represents an underdog):
SIMON
TSURUYA
BUDAY
ROBERTSON
TALBOTT
SILVA
FILI
PYFER
GARRY
BUENO SILVA**
DOLIDZE
ORTEGA **
________________
Great insight this week man , love how much detail you’re adding. Making me question a few of my picks this week though hahaha good luck 👊🏽